skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


  • Home
  • Search Results
  • Page 1 of 1

Search for: All records

Creators/Authors contains: "Werner, Maximilian"

Note: When clicking on a Digital Object Identifier (DOI) number, you will be taken to an external site maintained by the publisher. Some full text articles may not yet be available without a charge during the embargo (administrative interval).
What is a DOI Number?

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.

  1. ; ; ; (, Environmetrics)
    ABSTRACT Variants of the Epidemic‐Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) and Short‐Term Earthquake Probabilities (STEP) models have been used for earthquake forecasting and are entered as forecast models in the purely prospective Collaboratory Study for Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) experiment. Previous analyses have suggested the ETAS model offered the best forecast skill for the first several years of CSEP. Here, we evaluate the prospective forecasting ability of the ETAS and STEP one‐day forecast models for California from 2013 to 2017, using super‐thinned residuals and Voronoi residuals. We find very comparable performance of the two models, with slightly superior performance of the STEP model compared to ETAS according to most metrics. 
    more » « less